Economics
Immigration reduces inflation in US – IMF paper
But immigrants put upward pressure on house prices, study finds
NBER paper explores sources of ‘geoeconomic power’
Authors write of “urgent need” to understand “new era of geoeconomic rivalry”
Trade wars could cost world $6.5tn by 2030 – Swift study
Fragmented financial landscape “benefits no one”, report shows
The UK is not suffering another Truss shock
The increase in gilt yields is a long way from the turmoil of 2022, writes Jagjit Chadha. But it does highlight flaws in the use of fiscal rules
Fed’s anecdotal survey correlates with economic data – research
Study says Beige Book’s “soft” data is “actually quite firm”
Bigger cities do not mean much greater growth – study
Benefits of agglomeration are “surprisingly little”, NBER paper argues
BoE’s new research agenda adds focus on balance sheet
Three-year plan responds to inflation surge, market turmoil and changed mandates
Higher tariffs would hurt US allies as well as its foes – research
However, research says country would be largely shielded from impact of geopolitical fragmentation
ECB set for 100bp of rate cuts by autumn – Greek governor
France is ‘an issue’ and Trump presidency an ‘explosive mix’, says Stournaras
Distributions allow better state-level forecasts – RBI paper
Authors find new method incorporating inflation and expectations can cut forecast errors
Forbearance does not always lead to ‘zombification’ – BoE paper
Well-designed policies can support firms through temporary periods of stress, researchers find
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – model banks analysis
Additional data breakdowns reveal patterns based on staffing and development
Demographics could trigger closures of US universities – study
Research by Philly Fed says fewer young people are enrolling, which is adding to financial pressures
IMF team builds new multi-country semi-structural model
G3MOD designed for frequent analysis by central banks of trade and financial links
Economics Benchmarks 2024 – executive summary
The benchmark drills into model design features as well as staffing, research and AI
Tax avoiders less likely to channel funds through Netherlands – DNB
Annual flow of money to tax havens fell by 75% in just five years, central bank says
Economics Benchmarks 2024 report – making models work
The benchmarks this year include more granular details on key model design features
Stiglitz offers alternatives to standard theories of economic fluctuations
Nobel prize winner argues that endogenously driven variations are key to understanding economies
BIS highlights market ‘uneasiness’ over bond issuance
Claudio Borio says fiscal outlook worldwide is “acutely worrying”
Phillips curve is convex in short term – NBER paper
Data on US and UK shows firms respond more to positive than negative demand shocks
ADB approves $500 million loan to Indonesia
Policy-based facility focuses on expanding vulnerable groups’ access to financial services